What are Scenarios?
Although we cannot 'predict' the future, there are techniques that construct a range of future possibilities from combinations of insight and foresight: extensions of what we know today and conceptions of what tomorrow's world might entail. These techniques produce scenarios - collections of future possibilities that represent the boundaries of our insight and foresight. Scenarios are not forecasts: they are reflections of the upper and lower bounds of likelihood and impact of future possibilities.
There are two basic forms: Extreme Worlds and Driving Forces. Extreme World scenarios deals with survivability and Driving Forces deals with the progression of currently important issues from the present to the future. Scenarios can sometimes be controversial! After all, who would have imagined some of today's situations back in the 1950's?
Scenarios have been used very successfully by global organisations (such as oil producers) to help with strategic planning and to streamline future action if previously examined scenarios eventuate.
If you are a student - here is a short tutorial on scenarios.
How do you use Scenarios?
Once scenarios are completed, they form narrations or story-lines that describe pathways to future feasible outcomes. These story-lines are sufficiently detailed to form a basis for developing strategies for enterprises, or in this case national or regional tourism strategies, that span part of the scenario horizon (2009 - 2050).
If subsequent events do not unfold according to the story-lines then future strategies need to be altered. In the same way, scenarios also need to be revisited every 5 - 10 years to acknowledge new insights and capture new foresight.
However if scenarios satisfactorily reflect subsequent events, a powerful competitive advantage arises from those strategies based upon them. In summary, well-constructed scenarios confer possible advantages but without the risk of serious disadvantage if there is divergence.